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Forecasting the Top NHL Regular Season Teams in 23-24

Every game is an opportunity to get 2 points during the regular season. See the ChelChattr Top 8 and Bottom 8 Pts/Gm Teams and a forecast for the 23-24 season

Forecasting the Top NHL Regular Season Teams in 23-24

Every game there are 2 points on the line.

Well, there used to be. Now we get to watch the novelty that is 3v3 followed by the dated novelty that is the shootout – while simultaneously awarding an extra point.

Cynicism aside, the NHL regular season is a marathon. The teams on these Top lists find ways to get points night in and night out. Teams on the Bottom 8 know exactly how long 82 games is.

Forecasting the Top 8 (and Bottom 8) NHL Teams for 23-24 Points per Game Played

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An Exponential Smoothing State Space Model was used to forecast future performance while biasing towards recent performance. Top/Bottom teams were identified based on their trajectory and acceleration. The only data in the model is team-level performance grouped by season.

Top 8

  1. Seattle Kraken: 1.710 PTS/GP – super super suspect and extrapolating from a tiny dataset. Should have just removed
  2. Colorado Avalanche: 1.470 PTS/GP
  3. Carolina Hurricanes: 1.445 PTS/GP
  4. Florida Panthers: 1.183 PTS/GP
  5. Boston Bruins: 1.698 PTS/GP – also overvaluing recent performance
  6. Edmonton Oilers: 1.345 PTS/GP
  7. Dallas Stars: 1.370 PTS/GP
  8. New York Rangers: 1.323 PTS/GP

Top 8 teams based on model forecast for 23-24 Pts/GM

Bottom 8

  1. Columbus Blue Jackets: 0.64 PTS/GP
  2. Anaheim Ducks: 0.63 PTS/GP
  3. San Jose Sharks: 0.66 PTS/GP
  4. Chicago Blackhawks: 0.62 PTS/GP
  5. Montreal Canadiens: 0.74 PTS/GP
  6. Washington Capitals: 0.92 PTS/GP
  7. Philadelphia Flyers: 0.86 PTS/GP
  8. Nashville Predators: 1.12 PTS/GP

Storylines

  • Sorry Seattle fans. And Bruins fans.
    • This model is heavily biased towards recent performance. I'm not expecting a 22-23 Bruins-esque run for either team
  • How soon does Bedard change the Blackhawks trajectory?
  • Are they down, or are they down and out?
    • Washington, Columbus, San Jose
  • Colorado and Carolina look to maintain an elite bar
    • And teams beware – both are still trending up

Top/Bottom 8 based on average regular season performance since 16-17 season

Top 8 Teams

  1. Boston Bruins
  2. Tampa Bay Lightning
  3. Toronto Maple Leafs
  4. Vegas Golden Knights
  5. Washington Capitals
  6. Pittsburgh Penguins
  7. Carolina Hurricanes
  8. Minnesota Wild

Bottom 8 Teams:

  1. Detroit Red Wings
  2. Buffalo Sabres
  3. Arizona Coyotes
  4. Ottawa Senators
  5. Seattle Kraken
  6. Anaheim Ducks
  7. New Jersey Devils
  8. Chicago Blackhawks

ChelChattr Quick Analysis

  1. 22-23 Bruins Regular Season
    1. But also wow the 18-19 Lightning were good
  2. The model shows shakeups at the Top and Bottom
    1. It's Top 8 to the Bottom 8 for the Great 8
  3. Some huge jumps last season
    1. History has examples of teams maintaining performance after performance big jumps. But some teams struggle to maintain the push