Which NHL teams are trending better and which... aren't?
Which NHL team dynasties are rising and which are falling? Trajectory is the overall direction a team's performance is headed. Acceleration is the rate at which the change in trajectory is occurring
Which NHL team dynasties are rising and which are falling?
Let's use calculus and a team's change in PTS/GP? Quick math recap and terminology we'll use here:
- Trajectory is the overall direction a team's performance is headed.
- We'll calculate it as the slope of the line formed by each team's PTS/GP (since 16-17).
- A positive slope would mean the team is getting better, while a negative slope would mean the team is getting worse.
- Acceleration is the rate at which the change in trajectory is occurring
- Acceleration can be determined by observing the rate of change of the trajectory. This could be calculated by finding the second derivative of the team's PTS/GP over the seasons.
- If the second derivative is positive, it means the team's improvement is accelerating; if it's negative, the team's decline is accelerating. If it's close to zero, the team is either steadily improving, steadily declining, or remaining constant.
ChelChattr Analysis
- Teams like the Edmonton Oilers, Carolina Hurricanes, and the New York Rangers have a high positive trajectory, meaning they are improving, and they also have positive acceleration, meaning their improvement is accelerating.
- Teams like the Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks, and Columbus Blue Jackets have a negative trajectory, implying they are getting worse, and their negative acceleration indicates that their decline is accelerating.
- The Colorado Avalanche, despite having a positive trajectory, meaning they are improving, have negative acceleration, indicating that the rate of their improvement is slowing down.
- This seems unduly harsh to the Avalanche. 16-17 was a historically bad season, and they made a huge jump in 17-18. Biases the projection towards an impossible growth rate (similar to what's seen w/ the Kraken here).
- Montreal Canadiens have a negative trajectory but positive acceleration, indicating that while they are on a decline, the rate of decline is slowing down, and they might see improvement in the future.